This page captures the updates to the graphs detailed in previous posts.
Case Trajectories - Large Western Democracies
Notes: To get meaningful comparisons between countries, we make two adjustments to the daily total case numbers:
Since the virus spreads to different countries at different times, each country is time-shifted so that the first data point is when the country surpassed the threshold of 1 case per 100,000 people. This applies to the horizontal (i.e., time) axis.
Rather than graph raw numbers, we normalized each country to its total population (number of cases per 100,000 people). This applies to the vertical (i.e., number of cases) axis.
Case Trajectories - Additional Sample Countries
Case Growth - Large Western Democracies
Notes:
As with the per capita case graphs, each country is synchronized to the first day when the country exceeded 1 case per 100,000 people.
The growth rate is calculated as the current day's number of cases divided by the number of cases 5 days prior.
If the growth rate is increasing, then the country's case management is out of control. Conversely, the growth rate will decline as a country takes rigorous action to reduce the spread of the virus.
As the number of new cases approaches zero (total containment), the growth rate will converge to 1.
Note that the jump in France's growth rate between days 28 and 34 is due to a correction in undercounting cases.
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